This is the final post in the series predicting New Zealand’s results at the Commonwealth Games. This time we consider the possible results of the relay events. One would hope that New Zealand would do very well in these races. After-all Swimming New Zealand turned itself inside-out in order to add, effectively unqualified, relay swimmers into this team. I have long believed that the selection fiddle was simply to avoid the embarrassment of admitting to Sport New Zealand that only two swimmers qualified for the Commonwealth Games. Come hell or high water Swimming New Zealand needed to nominate a “normal” size of team. Only Swimming New Zealand could possibly believe that a dozen unqualified swimmers is a better option than a team of two swimmers performing well.

The post lists the top three relay countries in the Commonwealth for each event. There is then a prediction of the New Zealand result. The prediction is based on a second table shown for each relay. This table lists the best times of the four fastest NZ relay swimmers and deducts a 1.20 second relay change-over allowance to show a predicted time for the NZ team. This can be compared to the three best Commonwealth relay times.

At the conclusion of this post there is a table that summarises the predictions made in this Swimwatch series of posts.

So how does NZ compare?

	400 Freestyle Relay Women
1	3:32.01 Australia
2	3:33.88 Canada
3	3:40.86 Great Britain

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Less Relay	Total Time
56.04	56.79	56.98	55.84	1.20	3:44.45

 

	400 Freestyle Relay Men
1	3:12.45 Australia
2	3:14.88 Canada
3	3:17.41 South Africa

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Less Relay	Total Time
49.43	49.48	49.59	50.83	1.20	3:18.13

 

	400 Medley Relay Women
1	3:54.29 Australia
2	3:54.86 Canada
3	3:59.51 Great Britain

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Less Relay	Total Time
1:00.82	1:10.44	58.51	55.84	1.20	4:04.41

 

	400 Medley Relay Men
1	3:28.95 Great Britain
2	3:33.91 Australia
3	3:35.14 Canada

Prediction – New Zealand is unlikely to swim in this event. If they did swim the team would not make the final or medal.

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Less Relay	Total Time
53.99	1:05.19	53.97	49.43	1.20	3:41.38

 

	800 Freestyle Relay Women
1	7:48.51 Australia
2	7:51.47 Canada
3	8:00.93 Great Britain

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Less Relay	Total Time
2:00.09	2:00.60	2:01.56	2:02.45	1.20	8:03.45

 

	800 Freestyle Relay Men
1	7:01.70 Great Britain
2	7:05.68 Australia
3	7:17.36 Canada

Prediction – New Zealand should make the final but is unlikely to medal.

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Less Relay	Total Time
1:50.99	1:50.13	1:47.13	1:49.89	1.20	7:18.14

 

CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY OF NZ SWIMMERS’ PREDICTED PERFORMANCES

The table below summarises all the predictions made in the last four posts. What this is saying is that the 2018 New Zealand Commonwealth Games swim team will swim in fifteen finals and will win one silver medal (100 backstroke) and two bronze medals (50 butterfly and 200 backstroke). We will soon see the accuracy of that prediction.

Event	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Final
Freestyle Events	0	0	0	3
Backstroke Events	0	1	1	2
Breaststroke Events	0	0	0	0
Butterfly Events	0	0	1	5
Relay Events	0	0	0	5
All Events Total	0	1	2	15

If the prediction is accurate this result would be worse than the three previous Commonwealth Games. The table below shows the previous Games’ results and compares them with our Gold Coast predictions. Just when we thought Glasgow was bad, Swimming New Zealand may have found a way of sinking even further.

Gender	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Final	Semi	Heat	Total
GC 2018 Prediction	0	1	2	15	na	na	na
Glasgow 2014	1	1	0	8	3	14	28
Delhi 2010	0	3	2	9	10	5	29
Melbourne 2006	1	1	4	na	na	na	na