Two previous Swimwatch posts have discussed the possibility of New Zealand swimmers making a final or winning a medal in the Commonwealth Games’ freestyle, backstroke and breaststroke events. This post will look at the butterfly and medley races. The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in each of the butterfly and medley competitions. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 26.45. This time ranks her seventh in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 0.69 seconds or 2.6%. Conclusion – Gasson should earn a swim in the final but a medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 50 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Daniel Hunter. He has a personal best time of 24.00. The gap to eighth is 0.26 seconds or 1.1%. The gap to third is 0.48 seconds or 2.0%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 58.51. The gap to eighth is 0.06 seconds or 0.1%. The gap to third is 1.09 seconds or 1.9%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 100 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Samuel Perry. I do not think he will swim the event. But if he does he has a personal best time of 53.97. The gap to eighth is 1.75 seconds or 3.2%. The gap to third is 2.97 seconds or 5.5%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 2:09.84. The gap to eighth is 0.05 seconds or 0.1%. The gap to third is 2.47 seconds or 1.9%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 2:00.19. The gap to eighth is 3.03 seconds or 2.5%. The gap to third is 4.28 seconds or 3.6%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 medley swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 2:13.14. The gap to eighth is 0.96 seconds or 0.7%. The gap to third is 2.17 seconds or 1.6%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 medley swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 1:59.24. The time ranks him sixth in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 0.85 seconds or 0.7%. Conclusion – Ashby should make this final. With a very good swim a bronze medal is an outside possibility. .

New Zealand’s fastest female 400 medley swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 4:46.41. The gap to eighth is 7.12 seconds or 2.5%. The gap to third is 9.93 seconds or 3.5%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 400 medley swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 4:18.68. The time ranks him seventh in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 3.0 seconds or 1.1%. Conclusion – Ashby should make this final. A medal is unlikely.

Conclusions for butterfly and medley events – The New Zealand swimmers most likely to make finals are Helena Gasson and Bradlee Ashby. They should make finals in the women’s 50, 100 and 200 butterfly and the men’s 200 and 400 Medley. It is unlikely that any other New Zealand swimmer will make a final in either butterfly or medley events.

Prediction – Five finals. One bronze medal.