Two previous Swimwatch posts have discussed the possibility of New Zealand swimmers making a final or winning a medal in the Commonwealth Games’ freestyle, backstroke and breaststroke events. This post will look at the butterfly and medley races. The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in each of the butterfly and medley competitions. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 26.45. This time ranks her seventh in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 0.69 seconds or 2.6%. Conclusion – Gasson should earn a swim in the final but a medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 50 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Daniel Hunter. He has a personal best time of 24.00. The gap to eighth is 0.26 seconds or 1.1%. The gap to third is 0.48 seconds or 2.0%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 58.51. The gap to eighth is 0.06 seconds or 0.1%. The gap to third is 1.09 seconds or 1.9%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 100 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Samuel Perry. I do not think he will swim the event. But if he does he has a personal best time of 53.97. The gap to eighth is 1.75 seconds or 3.2%. The gap to third is 2.97 seconds or 5.5%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 2:09.84. The gap to eighth is 0.05 seconds or 0.1%. The gap to third is 2.47 seconds or 1.9%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 butterfly swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 2:00.19. The gap to eighth is 3.03 seconds or 2.5%. The gap to third is 4.28 seconds or 3.6%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 medley swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 2:13.14. The gap to eighth is 0.96 seconds or 0.7%. The gap to third is 2.17 seconds or 1.6%. Conclusion – Gasson could well make this final. A medal is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 medley swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 1:59.24. The time ranks him sixth in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 0.85 seconds or 0.7%. Conclusion – Ashby should make this final. With a very good swim a bronze medal is an outside possibility. .

New Zealand’s fastest female 400 medley swimmer at the Games is Helena Gasson. She has a personal best time of 4:46.41. The gap to eighth is 7.12 seconds or 2.5%. The gap to third is 9.93 seconds or 3.5%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 400 medley swimmer at the Games is Bradlee Ashby. He has a personal best time of 4:18.68. The time ranks him seventh in the Commonwealth. The gap to third is 3.0 seconds or 1.1%. Conclusion – Ashby should make this final. A medal is unlikely.

Conclusions for butterfly and medley events – The New Zealand swimmers most likely to make finals are Helena Gasson and Bradlee Ashby. They should make finals in the women’s 50, 100 and 200 butterfly and the men’s 200 and 400 Medley. It is unlikely that any other New Zealand swimmer will make a final in either butterfly or medley events.

Prediction – Five finals. One bronze medal.

 The previous Swimwatch post discussed the possibility of New Zealand swimmers making a final or winning a medal in the Commonwealth Games’ freestyle events. This post will look at the backstroke and breaststroke events. The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in each of the stroke races. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either of those things happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 28.78. The gap to eighth is 0.60 seconds or 2.1%. The gap to third is 1.27 seconds or 4.4%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 50 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Daniel Hunter. He has a personal best time of 25.87. The gap to eighth is 0.40 seconds or 1.6%. The gap to third is 0.79 seconds or 3.1%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 1:00.82. The gap to eighth is 1.10 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 1.69 seconds or 2.9%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 100 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Corey Main. HHHHhHe has a personal best time of 53.99. This time ranks him third in the Commonwealth. Main is a good competitor and has been well coached in Florida. I expect he will make the final in this event and will win a silver medal.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 2:11.91. The gap to eighth is 2.36 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 5.55 seconds or 4.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Corey Main. HHHHhHe has a personal best time of 1:58.00. This time ranks him fourth in the Commonwealth. Main is a good competitor and has been well coached in Florida. I expect he will make the final in this event and will win a bronze medal.

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 breaststroke swimmer at the Games is Bronagh Ryan. She has a personal best time of 32.32. The gap to eighth is 1.32 seconds or 4.1%. The gap to third is 1.83 seconds or 5.7%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 breaststroke swimmer at the Games is Bronagh Ryan. She has a personal best time of 1:10.44. The gap to eighth is 3.20 seconds or 4.5%. The gap to third is 3.66 seconds or 5.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

Conclusion for backstroke and breaststroke events – The New Zealand swimmer most likely to make a final is Corey Main. He should make the final of the 100 and 200 backstroke and could also medal in both events. It is unlikely that any other New Zealand swimmer will make a final in either backstroke or breaststroke.

Prediction – Two finals. One silver and one bronze medal.

 The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in the freestyle events. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either of those two things happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Laticia-Leigh Transom. She has a personal best time of 25.99. The gap to eighth is 0.75 seconds or 2.8%. The gap to third is 1.37 seconds or 5.3%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s two fastest male 50 freestyle swimmers at the Games are Daniel Hunter and Samuel Perry. Daniel Hunter has a personal best time of 22.31. The gap to eighth is 0.20 seconds or 0.9%. The gap to third is 0.61 seconds or 2.7%. Conclusion – a good swim could earn a place in the final but a medal is unlikely. Samuel Perry has a personal best time of 22.47. The gap to eighth is 0.36 seconds or 1.60%. The gap to third is 0.77 seconds or 3.4%. Conclusion – In theory a final or a medal is unlikely. However Perry is coming off some top racing in the USA and could earn a final swim. For example his yards time, this week, at the NCAA Finals converts to 22.17, faster than the NZ record and only a few 100ths from a Commonwealth final.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Laticia-Leigh Transom. She has a personal best time of 55.84. The gap to eighth is 1.47 seconds or 2.6%. The gap to third is 3.47 seconds or 6.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s two fastest male 100 freestyle swimmers at the Games are Daniel Hunter and Samuel Perry. Daniel Hunter has a personal best time of 49.43. The gap to eighth is 0.30 seconds or 0.6%. The gap to third is 1.46 seconds or 3.0%. Conclusion – a good swim could earn a place in the final but a medal is unlikely. Samuel Perry has a personal best time of 49.48. The gap to eighth is 0.35 seconds or 0.70%. The gap to third is 1.51 seconds or 3.1%. Conclusion – Here again Perry is coming off some top racing in the USA. I expect Perry could very well earn a final swim. For example his yards time this week in an NCAA relay final converts to a very fast 48.20. A medal however is unlikely.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Carina Doyle. She has a personal best time of 2:00.09. The gap to eighth is 2.28 seconds or 1.9%. The gap to third is 3.33 seconds or 2.8%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Matthew Stanley. He has a personal best time of 1:47.13. The gap to eighth is 0.04 seconds or 0.3%. The gap to third is 0.64 seconds or 0.6%. Conclusion – I understand there may be some debate about whether Stanley can swim this event. It is on the same day as the relay. If he does swim and has a good day he could make a final and possibly even medal.

New Zealand’s fastest female 400 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Georgia Marris. She has a personal best time of 4:15.52. The gap to eighth is 4.72 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 8.62 seconds or 3.4%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 400 freestyle swimmer at the Games is Matthew Stanley. He has a personal best time of 3:47.67. That time pre-dates the 18 months used in this post. If Stanley could repeat this old time he would place 7^th. The gap to third is 2.11 seconds or 0.90%. Conclusion – Stanley should make a final in this event. A medal however is unlikely.

No New Zealand swimmers will swim this event.

No New Zealand swimmers will swim this event.

Conclusion for freestyle events – The New Zealand swimmers most likely to make a final are Perry and Hunter in either or both the 50 and 100 freestyle and Stanley in the 200 and 400 freestyle. All three would need to swim very well to achieve that result. It is unlikely that any New Zealand swimmer will medal in a freestyle event. It is also most unlikely that any New Zealand female swimmer will make a freestyle final.

Prediction – Three finals, no medals.

Here on Swimwatch we seldom discuss international swimming politics. There are two good reasons for this. First, I don’t know much about the subject. And second, there is more than enough in New Zealand to keep Swimwatch occupied. However there was a headline on SwimVortex today that did attract my interest. This is what it said:

It seems that Janet Evans is preparing to put her name forward to be the United States’ representative on the ruling FINA Bureau. That is great news for several reasons.

First Janet is a woman. That might sound strange but FINA is in serious need of some gender balance. The central FINA Bureau currently has thirty-five men and three women. Only in this most recent Olympic cycle has FINA appointed more than one woman. The ten Honorary members and the seven executive members are all male. Over all the organisation’s committees there are 179 men and 48 women. In a sport where more than 50% of the participants are women it is a travesty that 79% of the governing positions should be held by men.

New Zealand hasn’t helped. The most recent list I can find is in the 2016/17 Annual Report. This tells me that four New Zealand appointments (Gerrard, Clarke, West and Eagles) are male and one (Huckins) is female. New Zealand needs to set a better example than that. And so simply because of her gender I am favourably disposed to the appointment of Janet Evans.

Second, she really knows the sport of swimming. What Katie Ledecky is today Janet Evans was in the 1980s. Just consider this record; four Olympic Gold Medals and one Silver, five World Championship Gold Medals, one Silver and one Bronze and World Records over 400, 800 and 1500 meters. Her 800 meter world record of 8:16.22 stood unbroken for nineteen years from 1989 to 2008. For five years from 1985 to 1990 Evans was undefeated over 400, 800 and 1500 meters. The FINA Bureau could do with some real swimming knowledge at its top table. Perhaps she would temper FINA’s current rush to reward murderous dictators like the Russian President.

Third, she is young. She is 46 years old. The guy she is seeking to replace, Dale Neuburger, is pretty typical of FINA Bureau members. He has been FINA Vice President since 2000. It is time for him to move aside. The movement in swimming towards a more professional sport and overdue gender issues is work for a younger mind. Janet Evans seems well placed to address those problems, or as Craig Lord put it, “she stands head and shoulders above the likely male candidates whose names are doing the rounds of pool talk.”

Fourth, she is strong enough to effect change. One of the three women on the current FINA Bureau is the South African breaststroke Olympic Champion, Penny Heyns. Recent indecision by the Bureau on the Safe Sport issue suggests that Penny Heyns and the others are in serious need of help. The “athlete first” concept still has a long way to go in the sport of swimming. And that’s just as true in New Zealand as it is in Switzerland.

And fifth, I have some knowledge of one of the coaches who guided Janet Evans’ career. Through most of her swimming she was coached by Bud McAllister. I have had no personal contact with him. But I do know Mark Schubert who also assisted Janet Evans and also was coach of her young and talented daughter. I have coached four swimmers who have also swum with Mark Schubert. I have tremendous respect for the man. He is tough, uncompromising, knowledgeable and honest. The fact that Janet Evans survived and thrived with Mark Schubert is all the recommendation I need. No one with character defects last with Mark Schubert. Anyone who wants to know whether Janet Evans has what it takes to represent the sport can rest easy. Of course she has – she survived Schubert.

So that’s the five personal reasons that the selection of Janet Evans would be a good move. But there is more than that. A senior source close to the USA Swimming leadership told SwimVortex;

SwimVortex then checked on the qualities that the USA representative should possess. Here is the list;

Janet Evens has meets most of those requirements. We can only hope she makes her way through the American political minefield and ends up sitting at FINA’s top table.

It is off the subject, but swimming in New Zealand could do worse than examine the list of requirements for the American job and apply the same criteria to those who wish to represent New Zealand in the sport’s highest court.

 There are as many ways of preparing for a Games as there are swimmers in the event. There is no fixed formula; no compulsory recipe. Distances swum can vary. The makeup of training sets can differ. Some swimmers continue with their gym programs and others focus on swimming alone. There is certainly no one road to Games success. If there were we’d all be on it. However there are a few features that seem to be standard. One of them is the importance of pre-Games competition. You don’t need to be a qualified swim coach to understand that swimmers need warmup competitions. Going straight from the training pool to a Commonwealth Games heat swim is not going to be successful.

Real competition is required to practice the skills of racing hard. Some things just cannot be replicated in a training pool. Experience suggests that between four and six quality competitions are needed to achieve peak results. It normally takes four meets for the swimmer to adjust into full racing mode. When I was coaching Toni Jeffs she toured Europe twice and broke New Zealand records in meets five and six; Anna Simcic broke her world record in meet five; and Danyon Loader broke his in meet five. Fewer “warm-up” races would have seen New Zealand missing out on two world records and five national records. So four races is the minimum warm-up required and six is even better.

The table below shows the starting, mid-tour and end of tour times of several New Zealand swimmers who were on one of the tours with Toni Jeffs. All of them performing best at meets five and six:

The experience of track athletes confirms the importance of a well-planned series of warm-up competitive events. The table below shows the number of races some of New Zealand’s finest runners competed in before running their best times.

As you can see the experience of some very successful competitors suggest strongly that a well-planned pre-main event program of races is important.

And so how does the current New Zealand team’s pre-Games program compare. We already know that the preparation has been disrupted by Swimming New Zealand’s incompetence. A pre-Games camp has had to be split in two because Swimming New Zealand fiddled with the relay entries and then couldn’t count to 11. But has the federation compensated by planning an exciting series of warm-up events? The table below shows the competitions swum by each team member in February and March; in other words the competitions swum in the eight weeks prior to the Commonwealth Games. Because Corey Main, Georgia Marris and Samuel Perry are in the United States their information may not be accurate. I have attempted to find the events Perry and Marris would have swum by looking at their school events.

As you can see there is a huge difference between the competitive program followed by the athletes shown at the top of this post and the race program offered to this Commonwealth Games team. I hope I’m wrong, but in my opinion, and with the exception of Samuel Perry, the team lacks hard race preparation.

Samuel Perry’s February and March schedule has included races for Stanford University against USC, Cal, Pac12 and NCAA Div1. He should arrive in Brisbane hardened and race ready. Compare that to others on the team whose two events have been a Roskill Club Level 1 Meet and the Auckland Age Group Championships. Those events hardly compare with the Pac12 and NCAA Div1. With the best will in the world a Roskill Level 1 Meet and an Auckland Age Group Championships are not adequate preparation for a Commonwealth Games.

In a final act of lunacy Swimming New Zealand decided to program the National Open Championships three months after the Games have ended. In a piece of blatant vandalism, the one domestic event that could have offered some much needed competition was deliberately removed. Has someone in Antares Place set out to make life as difficult as possible for this team?

We will of course soon see what happens but at this stage the evidence suggests that the Swimming New Zealand parent body has let this team of swimmers down. The selection process was a farce, the pre-Games camp is a shambles, the debate over relay and individual events is causing conflict and the warm-up race program appears to be inadequate. The signs are ominous. In my opinion, if the worst happens, responsibility for the team selection, for the camp, for the event selection and for the pre-Games schedule lies squarely at the door of Cotterill and Johns. This one is down to them. They should be rewarded for the successes of the team. They should be fired for its failures.