The previous Swimwatch post discussed the possibility of New Zealand swimmers making a final or winning a medal in the Commonwealth Games’ freestyle events. This post will look at the backstroke and breaststroke events. The tables below list the eight fastest Commonwealth swimmers in each of the stroke races. Below each table is a description of New Zealand’s fastest swimmer with a prediction of the chance of making a final or winning a medal. The chance of either of those things happening is discussed in terms of the percentage New Zealand’s fastest swimmer is behind the eighth placed and the third placed Commonwealth swimmer. Experience has shown that, at this level, it is unlikely swimmers will improve by more than 1.5%. If the gap between eighth or third is more than that a place in the final or a medal is unlikely.

And so how does New Zealand compare?

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 28.78. The gap to eighth is 0.60 seconds or 2.1%. The gap to third is 1.27 seconds or 4.4%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 50 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Daniel Hunter. He has a personal best time of 25.87. The gap to eighth is 0.40 seconds or 1.6%. The gap to third is 0.79 seconds or 3.1%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 1:00.82. The gap to eighth is 1.10 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 1.69 seconds or 2.9%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 100 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Corey Main. HHHHhHe has a personal best time of 53.99. This time ranks him third in the Commonwealth. Main is a good competitor and has been well coached in Florida. I expect he will make the final in this event and will win a silver medal.

New Zealand’s fastest female 200 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Bobbi Gichard. She has a personal best time of 2:11.91. The gap to eighth is 2.36 seconds or 1.8%. The gap to third is 5.55 seconds or 4.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

New Zealand’s fastest male 200 backstroke swimmer at the Games is Corey Main. HHHHhHe has a personal best time of 1:58.00. This time ranks him fourth in the Commonwealth. Main is a good competitor and has been well coached in Florida. I expect he will make the final in this event and will win a bronze medal.

New Zealand’s fastest female 50 breaststroke swimmer at the Games is Bronagh Ryan. She has a personal best time of 32.32. The gap to eighth is 1.32 seconds or 4.1%. The gap to third is 1.83 seconds or 5.7%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

New Zealand’s fastest female 100 breaststroke swimmer at the Games is Bronagh Ryan. She has a personal best time of 1:10.44. The gap to eighth is 3.20 seconds or 4.5%. The gap to third is 3.66 seconds or 5.2%. Conclusion – a New Zealand final or medal is unlikely in this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

No New Zealand swimmer will contest this event.

Conclusion for backstroke and breaststroke events – The New Zealand swimmer most likely to make a final is Corey Main. He should make the final of the 100 and 200 backstroke and could also medal in both events. It is unlikely that any other New Zealand swimmer will make a final in either backstroke or breaststroke.

Prediction – Two finals. One silver and one bronze medal.